Adam Roberts,
Hello from London,
Here’s what should be a safe prediction about relations between the West and Russia: they won’t be improving any time soon. The war in Ukraine has become one of miserable attrition. Reports of Russian conscripts in Bakhmut sent to be machine-gunned by the Ukrainian forces are horrifying—the sort of killing you’d associate with the first world war in Europe, not this century. Yes, a counter-offensive by Ukraine is coming, but don’t bet on the frontlines shifting dramatically. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin, the one man who could choose to call off his criminal war of aggression, is unmoved and unmoving. He’s presumably set to remain in office for a long time yet.
Until Mr Putin goes—and possibly beyond—the ties between the West and Russia will only worsen. Russia’s cruel repression of opposition figures, and now its assault on foreign journalists as well as local ones, all bode ill for that country. What leverage does the West have to put pressure on Mr Putin? Beyond supporting Ukraine more robustly, the main option is to tighten and prolong sanctions on Russia, in the hope that a weakened economy will be less able to support its armed forces. We have just published our latest, detailed, assessment of the impact of the sanctions— and the threat to Russia’s ability to fight. No spoilers here, but while sanctions do play a big role, don’t expect short-term change.
For more on Russia, I urge you to listen to all the episodes (the final one just dropped) of our podcast series, Next Year in Moscow. In it, my colleague Arkady Ostrovsky—our Russia editor—traces the prospects of those who dare to defy Mr Putin. It’s a captivating show.
Some big news stories are not at all surprising. Take Joe Biden officially declaring that he wants a second term as president. He may do so this week. If so, don’t expect anyone to choke on their cornflakes in shock. He’s already, sort of, said he will run. (We’ve previously argued that, despite a successful presidency so far, it would be better if he didn’t.) Now, however, Mr Biden should set out a positive case for his second term. For many voters, it may be enough that he reckons he’s the best candidate to stop a second Donald Trump presidency. But we’d hope for something more inspiring than that.
Another story to etch into the predictable-but-it-matters-category: Israel marks its 75th birthday this week, just as the country is going through a serious political crisis. Have a read of our latest By Invitation, a guest essay by Yair Lapid, the leader of Israel’s opposition party. Later in the week we’ll have plenty of commentary of our own— and our subscribers can join a webinar on Thursday, where my colleagues will discuss what the recent turmoil means for the country’s future. There’s a great deal to celebrate in Israel, not least the strength of its economy (especially in tech) and the fact that it’s a democracy in a region that is short on them. On the other hand, there’s also a great deal to worry about, as populism grows along with threats to democratic institutions, notably the courts. Meanwhile, the ongoing misery of Palestinians in occupied territory is as far from ending as ever.